Two dozen guests crowded Vijay Pallod’s Sugar Land living room Thursday night, hopeful that a live stream of election results from India would affirm their work campaigning for the opposition party from Houston and on-the-ground in the world’s largest democracy.
For weeks, nearly 600 volunteers worked phone banks from Houston to rally support for prime minister candidate Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party. About 40 Houstonians then traveled to India for two weeks campaigning for Modi in their relatives’ homes, reaching out to international business leaders and even pitching to jobless young adults they met along rural streets.
Pallod’s experience matched optimistic reports in Houston’s three Indian newspapers. Many Indians temporarily sidelined divisive ethnic, religious and caste disputes to demand economic reform, seeing Modi as the decisive leader needed to ram changes through a slow-moving, coalition parliament.
At Thursday’s election-watch party back in Sugar Land, Pallod relished early ballot counts showing Modi had broken a three-decade streak of leadership by the dynastic Indian National Congress party. But he knew the nation’s future hinged on parliament: Would the new prime minister be breaking up squabbles in a coalition government or would he charge ahead with support from the nation’s first majority party since 1984? At least 272 seats are needed to command the lower house, whose members are elected.
In a preliminary tally, it was announced that the party had already secured 100 of 543 seats. Everyone in Pallod’s living room leapt up to celebrate.
“Wow,” Pallod remembered saying.
The count kept increasing until, about 1:30 a.m., it was announced that the opposition party surpassed 272 seats in the lower house.
“I never thought it would happen. There’s never a majority,” Pallod said, laughing that he could not sleep that night.
Celebrations continue
Celebrations continue, including among many of the Houston area’s more than 100,000 Indian American residents. Some met Modi when he attended a ground-breaking event for a Hindu temple in Stafford, completed in 2004.
The local chapter of Global India for Bharat Vikas will host a Victory Celebration Party at India House beginning 4 p.m. Sunday. The group anticipates nearly 700 people will show up to honor the work of local political organizers, to watch clips of Modi’s speeches, and to discuss the future of India and its ties with America.
One key question is whether Modi can be a truly secular leader in a country with many faiths.
Critics worry the ascendance of his Hindu nationalist party could worsen sectarian tensions with India’s minority 138 million Muslims. Modi, as chief minister of Gujarat state, was in command in 2002 when rioting killed more than 1,000 people – most of them Muslims.
Modi was accused of doing little to stop the rampage, though he has never been charged with a crime. He was denied a U.S. visa in 2005 for alleged complicity in the riots, but as prime minister, he would be virtually assured one.
He also is certain to face resistance from some entrenched government officials, as he campaigned to reduce their authority. Changing tax policy or labor laws would require the support of the upper house of Parliament, appointed positions that the Bharatiya Janata Party does not control.
With a population of 1.2 billion, India is now in the throes of rapid urbanization and globalization. The skyrocketing population of young voters is far less deferential to traditional voting patterns based on ethnicity and caste, putting jobs and development as their priorities.
Sreeram Chaulia, a political analyst and dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs, said the BJP’s image as a purely capitalist, pro-business party resonated across India. That image contrasts with the Congress party, which is considered more of a welfare party, mixing capitalist reforms with handouts for the poor.
“A lot of ordinary people believed in (Modi’s) message and wanted to give him the strong mandate he was seeking, to see if he could really change things in India,” Chaulia said. “There has been growth in the middle class, so of course why have they punished the incumbents? Because they want more, obviously, something more than subsistence. They want upward mobility.”
Factories in India
The BJP has promised to change tough labor laws that make foreign manufacturers reluctant to set up factories in India. Manufacturing makes up only 15 percent of India’s economy, compared to 31 percent in China. Attracting manufacturing investment is key to creating jobs for the 13 million young Indians entering the workforce each year.
Modi, a career politician, also has said he wants to strengthen India’s strategic partnership with the United States.
Diplomatic relations with India have been strained, but President Barack Obama has signaled a willingness to repair the relationship. He already has called to congratulate Modi on his victory and invite him to meet in Washington, D.C. He started mending fences in February, when, for the first time in Modi’s decadelong tenure as the top official in Gujarat state, the U.S. ambassador met with him.
International business leaders, too, have shown increased interest in India.
Indian stocks, bonds
Foreign investors have been pouring billions of dollars into Indian stocks and bonds in anticipation of a Modi victory.
Ramesh Bhutada, owner of Star Pipe Products in Houston and active philanthropist among the city’s Indian immigrants, also expressed optimism about the ending reign of the Congress party, which has dominated the nation’s politics off-and-on for six decades.
“When they came into power 10 years ago, they went back to their old politics of an entitlement environment and things of that nature,” he said. “As a result India again is not really a growth story. We are adding every year more than 10 million youth to the job market and we’re not able to provide them jobs. This is like a second independence for India. “
Bhutada’s company relies heavily on importing water pipe fittings manufactured in India.
He noted Modi’s proposed pro-business reforms also could give momentum to growing business ties with the United States.
India’s annual GDP growth rate plummeted from nearly 10 percent in 2007 to a low of 4.7 percent in 2012, bottoming out at 3.9 percent in 2008, according to the World Bank. Yet, over the same period, bilateral trade with the United States has ballooned four-fold to $100 billion, according to the U.S.-India Business Council.
The United States’ top exports to India reflect the nation’s needs for growing industries: precious stones and metals, machinery, aircraft, optical instruments, fuel and fertilizers. India primarily sends diamonds, jewelry and textiles to the U.S., according to the Indo- American Chamber of Commerce.